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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
I've been out of control for 2 years, spending an average of 7154,85€ / month...
Yes, this is the day. My accountant made the calculations for 2019 income and corporate tax. It's 37580,39€ combined which i have to pay at the end of feb 2021. I was shocked, to say the least. My business is doing well, so i will have no problem paying that, but that really got me thinking, i need to get frugal NOW! So here are my expenses, which i never displayed like this before: 2020 expenses This shit is not sustainable (it is, but i hate to pay taxes and wasting money like this) and i will cut back pretty hard this year.
....a little background... I started selling stuff online mid 2014 and got to 1Mil gross/year in 2017 netting around 12-15%. I was young (31 lol) and stupid, so i bought 2 cars, expensive ones, 0% loans at least(wow i'm so smart).... Fast forward, i now pay 7154,85€ every month to keep this useless bimbo lifestyle which ich absolutely HATE looking at these numbers... I do prepay some incometax but it is not nearly enough, so i anticipate to pay 2k/month on top of this for the next year starting March 2021
As you can clearly see, i did and am doing all the mistakes a douchbag can do
pissing money away on Amazon.
buying the most expensive gas for your car because it can only use that...
Takeout at least 4-5 times a Month.
Saving money where you should not save, on food.
taking private loans for even more useless stuff.
I hate myself so much right now, seeing all the money drained which could have doubled my income when used the right way, i'm in tears... I did trade a lot of forex in 2010 to 2012, of course loosing money on the way, one thing i learned tho was to use a stop loss, which will cancel any open trade when reaching a certain value. So i'm pulling the stop loss on my spending right now, as i can't take it anymore.
I will be living in my office by the end of this year, bringing Rent, Internet and Netflix from around 1000€/month to ZERO.
One car will be paid in full on feb 2021, will sell it immediately using the money to pay of the private loan, bringing the private loan from 1000€/month to ZERO.
cutting back on Amazon, charging the amazon account with only 100€/Month, saving at least 500€/month.
No more fucking MCD and BK! I'm fat as hell....saving 127€/month.
Driving only when necessary. I hope to get it down to around 100€ / month. Gas is so expensive, i'm from germany, you know, it's expensive as hell....
I will not be paying using cash money anymore, as i can't trace it later...
This measures will free up around 3500€/month at least, which will go to tax prepayment and the other car loan. Oh boy, writing this down has done so much for me the last hour, i will go even further, cutting everything i can. Can you believe that the isurance for my car is 1000€/year? lol, hear's to having a 300 hp car. New tires are ~850€. I'm fucking done with all this, the only thing i will spend more on is my body and mind, healthier food, sports. I can't wait. Thank you for reading, if you did. Hope you don't make the same mistakes i do/did.
Финансовая кухня от псевдо-брокера Icon Investing ltd
Финансовая кухня от псевдо-брокера Icon Investing ltd - развод или правда. Честный отзыв от Baxov.Net Icon Investing ltd – очередной липовый брокер, обещающий золотые горы своим клиентам. Мошенники предлагают начинающим инвесторам зарегистрироваться на их сайте и торговать валютными парами, сырьём, индексами и акциями. Вот только не стоит этого делать. Потому что вы лишитесь своего вклада. Почему? Давайте присмотримся поближе к этому лохотрону. E-mail адреса проекта [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Внимание! мошенники очень часто меняют адреса своих лохотронов. Поэтому название, адрес сайта или email может быть другим! Если Вы не нашли в списке нужный адрес, но лохотрон очень похож на описанный, пожалуйста свяжитесь с нами или напишите об этом в комментариях! 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Если перейти по ссылке, можно почитать клиентское соглашение, отказ от ответственности и другие шаблонные договоры на английском языке. Документами их назвать на самом деле сложно. Более точный термин – филькина грамота. Я решила перевести тот бред, который пытаются втюхать нам шарлатаны. В частности, в клиентском договоре написано (перевод мой): Внебиржевые торги означают, что торговля не осуществляется на регулируемой бирже. Нет гарантии кредитоспособности контрагента по вашей позиции Forex, CFD. Другими словами, Icon Investing ltd не проходил аудит у национальных финансовых регуляторов. А значит компания не имеет права заниматься брокерской деятельностью. Что ещё забавного есть в тексте соглашения? Компания не дает инвестиционных советов. Рыночные рекомендации, сигналы, информация, предоставляемая и / или распространяемая Компанией, носит общий характер и основана на исключительно на мнении персонала Компании или сторонних поставщиков информации. Эти рыночные рекомендации могут соответствовать или не соответствовать положению на рынке или намерениям Компании, ее аффилированных лиц и / или сотрудников. То есть жулики честно признаются, что доверять им нельзя. Сам текст договора составлен безграмотно. Навряд ли его сочинял юрист. Скорее всего какой-то копипастер слепил его из шаблонов, которые можно найти в интернете. Используют прохиндеи торговый терминал, созданный компанией «Ютип». На baxov.net опубликован обзор на разработчика и его программное обеспечение: https://www.baxov.net/reviews/nasha-ocenka-foreks-platforma-utip-stoit-li-registrirovatsya Вкратце, у «Ютип» плохая репутация. Трейдеры жалуются, что брокеры, используя дыры в терминале «Ютип» могут рисовать любые графики и котировки в личном кабинете, тем самым обманывая инвесторов. Контакты проекта Адрес: Rodney Bayside Building, Rodney Bay, Gros-Islet, St. Lucia Телефоны: +44 148 087-9571 – код Великобритании +7 499 642-3254 – код России Данные по сайту: Домен IconInvesting.com был зарегистрирован 22 ноября 2019 года Имя собственника скрыто Разоблачение проекта Icon Investing ltd – это липовая компания. Жулики пишут, что работают с 2012 года, но домен их сайта относительно молодой. А главное – они не соизволили опубликовать документы о регистрации своей шараги. Перепроверить компанию в реестре юрлиц Сент-Люсии нельзя, ибо данное государство находится в офшорной зоне. Как удобно! Далее, в контактах указаны русский и британский телефоны. Если бы Icon Investing ltd официально работали в этих странах, у них была бы местная регистрация. Но её тоже нет. Что это означает? Что мы имеем дело с проходимцами без документов и без совести. В чём суть развода? Аферисты не ведут реальных торгов, а имитируют их, заманивая клиентов в так называемую форекс-кухню. На жаргоне трейдеров так называются сделки, закрываемые трейдерами того же брокера или самим брокером. Поскольку брокер не может работать в убыток, возникает конфликт интересов. Первое время негодяи будут рисовать своим клиентам прибыль в личном кабинете, уговаривая вложить ещё больше денег. Если вы поддадитесь на уловки, мошенники не остановятся, пока не обчистят вас до гола. Если же вы сразу попытаетесь вывести якобы заработанные деньги, они кинут вас. Возможные потери на проекте Итого: калькуляция возможных потерь на проекте – любая сумма, выше 250 долларов. Вывод о проекте Icon Investing ltd – это лохотрон. У аферистов нет документов. Кроме того, они используют «дырявое» программное обеспечение. Доверять им свои деньги не стоит. Любая сумма, вложенная в этот мошеннический проект, будет потеряна. Остерегайте себя и сбережения вместе с Baxov.Net https://www.baxov.net/reviews/finansovaya-kukhnya-ot-psevdo-brokera-icon-investing-ltd
Photo: Internet What is the European Union? The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 27 member states located primarily in Europe.EU policies aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within the internal market. Due to EU countries having close economic and trade relations, the EU's establishment can effectively prevent wars. The EU has helped foster long periods of economic prosperity, and it's helped keep the region at peace. In 2012, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. What is Brexit? Brexit(a portmanteau of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted in favour of leaving the EU, and 48% voted to remain a member, the UK Government, which was then led by Theresa May, formally notified the EU of the country's intention to withdraw on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Why Britain left the EU? The appealing part of the EU was that it made it easier for European countries to share in one another's prosperity. But, as with any union, cooperation means weathering downturns together — and that hasn't always been so easy. For example, the 2008 financial crisis. Many economists agree that the European Central Bank failed to respond effectively, leading to a recession that was much more severe than it needed to be. Unemployment rose, and tax revenue fell. Banks needed bailouts, and debt in a number of EU countries soared. According to data from the UK Ministry of Finance, the UK paid 18.8 billion pounds to the EU in 2014, equivalent to 361 million pounds a week. After the financial crisis, worries about immigration, rising right-wing forces, split within the party, etc. Former Conservative Prime Minister Cameron finally promised that if he wins the 2015 election, he will hold a Brexit referendum. David Cameron to quit after UK votes to leave the EU. When might Britain actually leave the EU? UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, but that is not the end of the Brexit story. That's because the UK is in an 11-month period, known as the transition, that keeps the UK bound to the EU's rules. The transition (sometimes called the implementation period) will end on 31 December 2020. Top of the to-do list will be a UK-EU free trade deal. This will be essential if the UK wants to be able to continue to trade with the EU with no tariffs, quotas or other barriers after the transition. Both sides will also need to decide how far the UK is allowed to move away from existing EU regulations. Aside from trade, many other aspects of the future UK-EU relationship will need to be decided. For example, Law enforcement, data sharing, and security; aviation standards and safety; access to fishing waters; supplies of electricity and gas; licensing and regulation of medicines. Photo: BBC What will happen to the UK after the Brexit? In terms of economy, the UK, which has withdrawn from the European Union, saves 8 billion pounds (this amount of money is equivalent to 0.5% of the UK's GDP) every year it pays to the EU's finances. After Brexit, immigration policies can also be further tightened to free up more jobs and labor benefits. Finally, Brexit can get rid of the red tape of the EU (about 70% of the laws in the UK are governed by EU laws), for example, no longer implementing the EU's common agricultural policy. However, after Brexit, tariffs will inevitably increase, and these tariffs will be transferred to commodities. To make better profits, many companies in the UK will rush to run away. For example, Dyson has moved its headquarters from the UK to Singapore. Many established British companies have left the UK because of Brexit. The news that Japanese car company Honda announced that it would close its British plant even shocked Britain. Besides, the City of London carries 74% of EU foreign exchange transactions, 40% of global Euro transactions, 85% of EU hedge fund assets, and half of EU deposit insurance. After Brexit, London's dominance in the foreign exchange market, including euro transactions, will decline. The current international order is the best since World War II, but Brexit shows how to make all countries truly unite and help each other, humankind still has a long way to go. After the Brexit, there will be more influential in the financial market in the future. TOP 1 Markets will keep an eye on it with you. https://preview.redd.it/ic5tdpzgh1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4b46fa72fb484475b7743c2ced235f0d8a0493e https://preview.redd.it/j5bm785jh1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c15796b88ef4a93354587c545d4c3cd67891040 For more information please download “TOP 1 Markets” at APP store or google play. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.top1.trading.forex.commodity.cryptocurrency.indices top1markets： https://itunes.apple.com/my/app/id1461741702 top one： https://itunes.apple.com/tw/app/id1506200136
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